The torches are dropping fast on Australian Survivor: Redemption — and with only five contestants left standing, the race to be crowned Sole Survivor is on.
This year’s season features 24 contestants — a mix of newcomers and returning players — battling it out over 45 days in Samoa for the $500,000 prize in a game that has been nothing short of ruthless.
Former All-Stars winner David Genat has taken over hosting duties from Jonathan LaPaglia this season, while returning fan favourites Simon Mee and Brooke Jowett were among those back for a second shot at the title.
While the show is still playing out on screens, betting sites are giving a fascinating insight into who the public thinks will win — and they have a strong track record when it comes to reality shows.
So who is looking like a winner right now?
At the time of publication, according to Bets, Jackson Goonrey has surged to the front of the pack with a 30 per cent winning chance.
The best-connected player left in the game, Jackson has managed to build strong social bonds across the board while keeping his hands relatively clean — and if he makes it to the end, he has the clearest story to tell the jury.
Hot on his heels is Lauren “Loz” Mac at 24 per cent, whose quietly elite social game has seen her navigate the chaos better than almost anyone.
She needs one defining move late in the game, but she is extremely well-liked and dangerous at a final tribal council.
Keeley Jenkinson sits third at 18 per cent, having emerged as a genuine swing player with real leverage. One key vote could send her winning equity soaring.
Caleb Beeby at 15 per cent is still very much in the hunt, though the consensus is he needs to make a move soon or risk being seen as a passenger.
Sally Foord rounds out the field at 13 per cent — her under-the-radar run has kept her alive, but she’ll likely need a major blindside or a big final tribal performance to take the title.
Fans on Reddit have been getting in on the predictions too, with one writing early in the season: “I think that it’s gonna be a final 3 of Lottie, Simon, and Jackson!”
Not everyone was keen to speculate, though, with another firing back: “Watch each episode as they come and enjoy them as they are. Don’t try to be smart and second-guess the production.”
Wise words – but where’s the fun in that?
